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Estherville, Day 2
Final Results

Normalized Scores

00-12Z 12-00Z
Forecaster T P Q S T P Q S Overall
Chris Schaffer 77.1 75.5 80.0 80.0 84.5 75.4 80.0 80.0 79.05
Eta/GFS MOS 83.6 77.5 80.0 80.0 76.0 77.7 80.0 80.0 79.35
GFS MOS 77.9 77.9 80.0 80.0 76.0 83.1 80.0 80.0 79.37
Andrew Ansorge 83.7 78.4 80.0 80.0 76.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 79.75
Average 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.00
Jon Hobbs 70.2 80.0 80.0 80.0 92.1 78.5 80.0 80.0 80.10
Consensus MOS 88.0 78.4 80.0 80.0 78.7 81.5 80.0 80.0 80.82
GFS Extended MOS 74.5 77.5 80.0 80.0 96.2 89.2 80.0 80.0 82.18
Eta MOS 92.2 77.5 80.0 80.0 109.2 76.2 80.0 80.0 84.38
GFS Ensemble MOS 112.1 80.8 80.0 80.0 96.2 83.8 80.0 80.0 86.62
Brandon Engelson 83.5 83.7 97.0 104.4 88.1 82.3 80.0 80.0 87.37
Justin Wittrock 81.1 116.6 97.0 104.4 100.2 76.2 80.0 80.0 91.92
David Kochevar 74.0 82.5 80.0 80.0 80.0 116.1 108.6 118.8 92.50
National Weather Service 75.4 89.0 114.0 104.4 87.2 90.0 108.6 80.0 93.57


Raw Squared Error

00-12Z 12-00Z
Forecaster T P Q S T P Q S
Chris Schaffer 328 0 0 0 33 0 0 0
Eta/GFS MOS 395 5 0 0 14 3 0 0
GFS MOS 337 6 0 0 14 10 0 0
Andrew Ansorge 396 7 0 0 14 6 0 0
Average 358 11 0 0 23 6 0 0
Jon Hobbs 258 11 0 0 50 4 0 0
Consensus MOS 440 7 0 0 20 8 0 0
GFS Extended MOS 302 5 0 0 59 18 0 0
Eta MOS 483 5 0 0 88 1 0 0
GFS Ensemble MOS 687 13 0 0 59 11 0 0
Brandon Engelson 394 20 1 1 41 9 0 0
Justin Wittrock 369 100 1 1 68 1 0 0
David Kochevar 297 17 0 0 23 53 2 2
National Weather Service 311 33 2 1 39 19 2 0