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Ames, Day 4/3/2/1

Final Results

Normalized Scores

00-12Z 12-00Z
Forecaster T P Q T P Q Overall
Justin Wittrock -0.03 -1.34 0.00 0.00 -1.21 -0.22 -0.47
Jayson Prentice 0.27 -1.34 0.00 0.39 -0.47 -0.22 -0.23
Brandon Engelson 0.24 -1.34 0.00 1.34 -1.21 -0.22 -0.20
Average 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Chris Schaffer 0.09 0.38 0.00 -0.12 0.28 0.00 0.11
GFS Extended MOS 0.90 -0.19 0.00 0.16 1.03 0.00 0.32
GFS Ensemble MOS 0.18 0.57 0.31 0.38 0.65 0.00 0.35
Andrew Ansorge 1.00 0.00 0.00 -0.19 1.31 0.00 0.35
Consensus MOS 0.06 1.15 0.31 -0.04 1.21 0.00 0.45
Jon Hobbs 1.27 0.77 0.00 -0.31 1.21 -0.22 0.45
Ben Schwedler 1.90 0.38 0.00 -0.63 0.19 0.90 0.46
National Weather Service 1.99 2.11 0.63 -0.42 1.77 0.45 1.09
Jacob Hamblin 3.41 0.38 0.00 3.32 1.96 0.00 1.51
Whitney Sager 0.75 0.96 3.77 0.88 0.84 3.60 1.80


Raw Squared Error

00-12Z 12-00Z
Forecaster T P Q T P Q
Justin Wittrock 34 0 0 57 0 0
Jayson Prentice 44 0 0 84 8 0
Brandon Engelson 43 0 0 149 0 0
Average 35 7 0 57 13 1
Chris Schaffer 38 9 0 49 16 1
GFS Extended MOS 65 6 0 68 24 1
GFS Ensemble MOS 41 10 1 83 20 1
Andrew Ansorge 68 7 0 44 27 1
Consensus MOS 37 13 1 54 26 1
Jon Hobbs 77 11 0 36 26 0
Ben Schwedler 98 9 0 14 15 5
National Weather Service 101 18 2 28 32 3
Jacob Hamblin 148 9 0 284 34 1
Whitney Sager 60 12 12 117 22 17