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Clinton, Day 1

Final Results

Normalized Scores

00-12Z 12-00Z
Forecaster T P Q T P Q Overall
Brandon Engelson 0.94 -1.06 -0.67 -0.99 -0.47 0.28 -0.33
Jon Hobbs -0.59 0.17 0.67 -1.07 0.20 -0.28 -0.15
Nick Carletta -0.56 -0.52 0.00 -0.29 0.43 0.85 -0.01
Chris Schaffer 0.44 -0.91 0.00 1.25 -0.83 0.00 -0.01
Average 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jeff Duda 0.50 -0.15 0.00 -0.13 -0.20 0.00 0.00
Justin Hayward 0.72 -0.31 -0.67 0.72 -0.71 0.28 0.00
Consensus MOS 0.16 0.35 0.00 -0.16 0.83 -0.28 0.15
NAM MOS 0.25 1.27 0.67 -0.77 0.00 -0.28 0.19
GFS Extended MOS 0.47 0.50 -0.67 1.47 0.59 0.00 0.39
National Weather Service -0.12 0.02 1.35 -0.13 -0.24 2.27 0.52
GFS MOS 0.16 1.35 2.69 0.19 1.03 -0.28 0.85
Elizabeth Suess -0.31 -0.29 2.02 0.45 0.67 3.12 0.94
Justin Wittrock 0.31 2.92 0.67 0.19 2.69 0.00 1.13
GFS Ensemble MOS 3.65 0.19 1.35 2.72 2.25 0.85 1.84


Raw Squared Error

00-12Z 12-00Z
Forecaster T P Q T P Q
Brandon Engelson 72 8 1 28 20 3
Jon Hobbs 23 67 3 25 37 1
Nick Carletta 24 34 2 54 43 5
Chris Schaffer 56 15 2 112 11 2
Average 42 59 2 65 32 2
Jeff Duda 58 52 2 60 27 2
Justin Hayward 65 44 1 92 14 3
Consensus MOS 47 76 2 59 53 1
NAM MOS 50 120 3 36 32 1
GFS Extended MOS 57 83 1 120 47 2
National Weather Service 38 60 4 60 26 10
GFS MOS 47 124 6 72 58 1
Elizabeth Suess 32 45 5 82 49 13
Justin Wittrock 52 200 3 72 100 2
GFS Ensemble MOS 159 68 4 167 89 5