Karstens' BlogcastFriday, May 30, 2008Hello again.It's been a little while since I've posted anything... this is because I've been extremely busy with the Twistex crew the past week. In the coming week, I'll add photos and a detailed explanation of my experiences in Kansas and Nebraska last week. Stay tuned... CK Friday, May 23, 2008Big Day...
For Jayson Prentice and I, we started the day in Goodland, KS. We were awaiting the arrival of Tim and the whole crew, which ended up being a total of 6 vehicles. Prior to their arrival, we had to make some repairs to our mobile mesonet. Tim and the gang arrived at 2pm CDT, and work began immediately on fixing Tony Laubach's mesonet. Meanwhile, storms were already firing up and quickly becoming severe. The fix took about 20 mintues, and we took off, heading east on I-70. Shortly after, it began to rain very heavily, accompanied by 1" hail.
We blazed east on I-70 to the town of Grainfield, and turned south on Hwy 23. We went past Gove in hopes of catching the southern most storm, and the plan was to get on Hwy 4 and head east, but we never made it. On the way, the second most southerly storm began to look more and more interesting. After we passed it by a few miles, Tim noticed a small funnel coming out of it. So we took the chase bait, and turned around, back toward the toward the town of Gove. It produced a very weak tornado, and that looked to be it. So our new plan was to get on I-70 and head east to once again intercept th southern most storm. But once again, as we got to the interstate, the storm produced a funnel, which quickly evolved into a small tornado. Tim, Tony, Verne, and National Geographic turned west on a small road north of the interstate. Bruce, Kathy, Jayson, and I continued north on 23 in hopes of sampling some RFD. Tim's group was unable to pursue north, as the roads turned to mush. That's where we lost them. They turned around, and headed east on I-70, where they later saw a few more tornadoes. Bruce, Kathy, Jayson, and I continued north on 23, where I was able to snap this photo of the rope tornado. ![]() I consider this is my first "official" tornado, and it was a thing of beauty. This rope tornado was snapped at 5:46pm CDT on Hwy 23 between Grainfield and Hoxie, as I was driving. Shortly after, the tornado dissipated. However, to our north we observed a nice mesocyclone/wall cloud, so we continued north on Hwy 23 to the town of Hoxie. We turned northwest on Hwy 24 and that's where things got wild. This is a bad photo of a multi-vortex tornado that was developing just a few miles northwest of Hoxie, taken at 6:04 pm. Within a few minutes, this tornado evolved into a wedge. We were able to sample the RFD on this tornado as well. Damage to power lines and homes were observed on this road.In order for us to continue pursuing this tornado, we had turn around, go back through Hoxie, and continue north on Hwy 23... so that's what we did. North of Hoxie, we observed two small tornadoes/gustnadoes within a hundred meters of our vehicles, one of which passed over Bruce and Kathy's car. I was very nervous. Jayson has some nice pics of this, and we have good video. We continued north on Hwy 23 and watched the main tornado persist, with a satellite tornado as well. Within the next several minutes, the tornadoes dissipated. Our next concern was gasoline, as we were down to a quarter tank, and all the little towns were out of power. Luckily, we were able to make it to Hill City, though the indicator was below the empty mark on the gas tank. On the way to Hill City, we saw a truck rolled in the ditch, with power poles bent over, and at the gas station one of the locals said they had to cut the truck open to get the guy out. After gassing up, our next objective was to meet back up with Tim. Shortly before making it to I-70, we decided to pull over, and not core punch the storm. This turned out to be a good decision, as there was damage in the town on Wakeeney. We were stopped on the road just on the north side of town, and could see damage to a grain bin. We got out and helped the emergency management clear the road. Once we got on I-70, we traveled east to Hays, KS to meet back up with Tim and stay the night at Best Western. They also observed several tornadoes, although no probe deployments were made, due to fast storm motions. We'll be chasing in the same general area today, and I hope Tim can get an intercept with this probes today. Hoping for another "Big Day". CK Thursday, May 22, 2008Let the Chase Begin!Today will be the first of many chase days for me, as I begin my participation with the TWISTEX crew. I'll be driving M2, with Jayson Prentice as the co-pilot. Our objective will be to sample the rear flank downdraft of our hopeful supercell we're able to latch onto today. We'll be following the careful instruction and guidance of Bruce Lee and Cathy Finely, from Minnesota. Leading the team of likely 6 vehicles is Tim Samaras. Jayson has tethered internet from his cell phone to his laptop. Thus, when we have a connection, you can follow us by watching our spotter network icon. You can also look for Verne Carlson or Tony Laubach, as they'll be in the crew as well. Today, and the following days, are looking spectacular for intercepting tornadoes. This setup has been called the best multi-day scenario in May and June in years, by my major professor. I sure hope it lives up to its potential. Tim has had a string of unlucky chases in recent years, concerning probe deployment. I hope today shatters that spell. Look for an update this evening when we arrive at our hotel. CK Monday, May 19, 2008Can you say, dryline?Take a look at this image, taken from this morning's 12z Nam in Bufkit, valid 7pm Thursday evening for Goodland and Hays, KS. ![]() Hays is showing nearly 4000 J/kg of Cape, no Cin, and excellent low level shear. Meanwhile, just a few counties west in Goodland, a massive dryline exists... If this holds up, Thursday could be a big day in the high plains... More to come... CK Saturday, May 17, 2008Repeat event?
Here's something interesting I'll put up. Below are the 500mb maps from this morning's 12z GFS, valid 00z next Thursday, and the 500mb analysis from March 28, 2007, valid at 00z.
![]() ![]() Pattern looks rather similar... which might be good considering these were the reports for this day... ![]() Still a ways out there, but consistently seeing a nice, deep western trough in the models has my confidence a little higher than normal... We'll just have to see how this turns out... CK Prolonged Severe Weather Next Week?For those of us model fantasy followers, the ECMWF has been consistently digging a major trough in the western CONUS. The GFS, on the other hand, has been rather inconsistent, but has been trending toward the EC solution. Because of this, most NWS offices, as well as HPC, have been trending toward the EC solution. If this pans out, a prolonged severe weather outbreak is certainly possible across the plains toward the middle/end of next week. Here are the 12z ECMWF and latest 00z GFS depiction of 500mb winds, valid next Thursday at 12z. ![]() ![]() Will be interesting to watch this one play out. At the very least, it looks like La Nina is going to provide us with some interesting weather. CK Hello. This is my first attempt at creating a blog.... I've held out until now, but I figure it might be nice to write down my thoughts on interesting forecasts, and share them if anyone cares. Enjoy! Also, if anyone noticed, I've been doing a lot of renovations to my website, so please feel free to browse around. More to come! -Chris ArchivesSubscribe to Posts [Atom] |