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About This Exercise

A Summary From

Yarger, D. N., W. A. Gallus Jr., M. Taber, J. P. Boysen, P. S. Castleberry, 2000: A Forecasting
                            Activity for a Large Introductory Meteorology Course.  BAMS, 81, 31-39)
    This automatically scored web-based activity requires students to evaluate selected weather parameters and to also select appropriate physical reasons for their values. This motivating and authentic forecasting exercise can form the basis for a deeper study of the process of science. Prediction is a key goal of science and one which students eagerly embrace.  To improve their predictive skills, students must develop additional skills of observation, hypothesis-generation and testing and analysis. Therefore, by developing a forecasting framework in which all activities have as an underlying goal, prediction, students can form a recurring and authentic link to key scientific processes.  Design considerations were based on constructivist learning theory.
    The forecast exercise is designed to use characteristics of natural learning processes (Schank et al. 1995).  Four fundamental features are identified that should be included in educationally sound multimedia software:
“-Building goal-directed learning systems means creating engaging environments that engross students in their roles. It is important for both motivational and cognitive reasons for students to buy into the role and want to perform well in it. Multimedia can help by creating motivating settings (e.g., the White House or the space shuttle) and introducing scenarios in a compelling way.
-Making software failure-driven means creating situations that allow the student to make mistakes. The right time to present information to students is after they fail, and this is when a multimedia database of relevant information is needed, but only if it is indexed so that students can quickly find information when they need it.
-Making software case-based means giving students access to expert opinions and stories that are relevant to the problem at hand. Digital video enables these experts' stories to be presented in an engaging and memorable way.
-Learning-by-doing means building simulated environments and multimedia can make these environments more realistic. Realism is important because it can make simulated worlds more authentic, helping students to connect the computer simulation to the real-life situation it represents.”
    The forecast exercise provides students repeated opportunities to test their understanding of various weather processes in a forum that is:
Goal-directed (students are asked to predict various weather parameters and select the appropriate physical reasons),
Failure-driven (for example, students now seek explanations for advection and ask how to estimate its influence on temperature changes),
Case-based (lecture discussions of advection processes now have context), and
Learning-by-doing (each student must forecast a minimum of 25 times).
The scoring weights we have used give students 3 points for a correct answer, 1 point for an answer outside the bound and zero points for no submission.


    The forecast exercise requires that participants use available weather products to predict weather parameters for 12Z and 18Z the next day.  Participants can select from more than 1000 cities in the U.S. for their forecast city.  The 12Z and 18Z times were selected to correspond to early morning (and thus representative of nighttime conditions) and mid-day periods for cities across the United States.  Students must consider the following weather parameters:  temperature; the temperature influences of cloudiness, advection, and frontal passage; occurence of precipitation; the precipitation influences of moisture supply, frontal position, and stability; wind speed; and wind direction.
 

Schank, R. C., M. Korcuska, and M. Jona, 1995: Multimedia applications for education and training:
        revolution or red herring?, ACM Computing Surveys, 27(4), 633-635.