More Flooding in a Drier Climate

Eugene S. Takle
© 2003

Christensen and Christensen (2003) have used a regional climate model to study summertime flooding frequency for Europe in a future scenario climate. They have used the regional model of the Danish Meteorological Institute to simulate high-resolution climate results for a future climate as produced by the ECHAM4 global ocean-atmosphere climate model of the Max Planck Institute in Germany.

They find that, even though precipitation generally is projected to decrease in the future scenario climate, the model reveals less decrease and even an increase in flooding frequency for some locations in Europe. A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, and episodes that make high amounts of moisture available creates a more intense hydrological cycle that produces more precipitation in isolated regions.

Reference

Christensen, J. H., and O. B. Christensen, 2003: Severe summertime flooding in Europe. Nature, 421, 805.