Eugene S. Takle
© 2003
Numerous events documented in paleoclimate records and even recent events recorded during the instrumental period clearly indicate that large regions of the earth have experienced occurrences of abrupt climate change. Current emphasis in climate change research emphasizes slow changes caused by increases in greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols. Alley et al (2003) provide a review of many examples of abrupt climate change in the past and assert that the international research community should develop a research agenda focused on causes and occurrences of rapid climate change. They point out that simple models describing the mechanisms of abrupt climate change confirm the possibility of such changes occurring in the future. They further note that rapid rises in human-induced radiative forcing (e.g., greenhouse gases) increases the probability of crossing critical climate thresholds and triggering future abrupt climate change events. Any future abrupt climate change comparable to known past events would have large and unanticipated impacts on societies and ecosystems. More precise estimates of impacts of abrupt climate change would provide policy makers with a more carefully designed set of response strategies.
Reference
Alley, R. B., J. Marotzke, W. D. Nordhaus, J. T. Overpeck, D. M. Peteet, R. A. Pielke Jr., R. T. Pierrehumbert, P. B.Rhines, T. F. Stocker, L.D. Talley, and J. M. Wallace, 2003: Abrupt climate change. Science, 299, 2005-2010.