Seasonal Forecasting: Accuracy Indices

Sector: Utilities

Index of power demand for cooling

TABLE OF WEIGHTING FACTORS

	May/Oct	May/Oct	June/Sept	June/Sept	July/Aug	July/Aug
	Day	Nigh	tDay	Night	Day	Night
Temp	3	1	6	3	10	5
RH	3	3	7	7	10	10
Precip	2	1	5	1	9	1

INDEX = SUM (weights)(errors) 
      =    3 T(M/O, d)  + 1 T(M/O, n) 
        +  6 T(Jn/S, d) + 3 T(Jn/S, n)  
        + 10 T(Jl/A, d) + 5 T(Jl/A, n) 
        +  3 RH(M/O)    + 7 RH(Jn/S)   + 10 RH(Jl/A) 
        -  2 P(M/O, d)  - 5 P(Ju/S, d) - 9 P(Jl/A, d) - 1 P(n)

LOGIC:

Variables Chosen

1. Precipitation makes it feel cooler (so subtract)
2. Temperature and RH makes it feel uncomfortable (so add)
3. RH is more uncomfortable
4. Set scale from 0 to 10

1. Peak power usage is more likely to break tolerance in the heart of summer so values are higher
2. Air conditioning is usually used any time from May to October

1. RH doesn't matter if day or night
2. Temperature does matter on day or night
3. Precipitation kind of matters

Sector: Petroleum Industry

Sector: Fisheries

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